海气通量算法在海上蒸发波导诊断中的应用

利用TOGA COARE Bulk Air-Sea Flux Algorithm3.0,建立了基于通量算法的蒸发波导模型(Flux Evaporation duct Model),并进行了环境敏感性分析,而且与Paulus-Jeske模型对比,进行误差敏感性分析,并开展了雷达探测评估的海上试验,较全面的阐述了基于通量算法的蒸发波导模型的性能。     

近岸波浪破碎区不规则波浪的数值模拟

基于近岸不规则波浪传播的抛物型缓坡方程和两类波浪破碎能量损耗因子,对近岸波浪破碎区不规则波浪的波高分布进行了数值模拟,并结合实验结果对数值模拟结果进行了验证分析,结果表明采用两类波浪破碎能量损耗因子所模拟的破碎区波高与实测值均吻合良好,波浪破碎能量损耗因子及波浪破碎指标对破碎区波浪波高分布影响较明显。     

GNSS形变监测中系统误差的时空相关性研究

通过大量实测数据分析了系统误差的时空变化规律,论证了具有时空相关性的双差观测值系统误差残差的存在,实现了观测值的滤波及求差,提高了分离微小形变量的精度。     

基于星敏感器的航天器姿态估计

星敏感器是一种高精度的姿态测量仪器,本文在分析星敏感器姿态测量原理的基础上,利用序贯平差方法确定航天器姿态并予以实现.仿真结果表明,该算法能满足实时姿态确定的精度要求,且降低了数据存储量,节省了存储单元,具有较强的灵活性.     

Tidal current observation in the southern Yellow Sea in the summers of 2001 and 2003

Direct current observations in the Yellow Sea interior are very scarce due to intense fishing and trawling activities. Most previous studies on tides in the area were based on coastal measurements or satellite altimeter sea levels and have not been rigorously compared with direct measurements. In this paper, tidal currents are studied with current profiles from three bottom-moored Sontek Acoustic Doppler Profilers （ADPs） deployed in the southern Yellow Sea in summer of 2001 and 2003. The measured current series were dominated by tidal currents. Maximum velocities are between 40-80 cm/s at the mooring stations. M2 current is the most dominant primary tidal constituent, while MS4 and M4 are the most significant shallow water tides with much smaller amplitudes than the primary tides.     

双向定时近周日误差成分初步分析

该文介绍了利用地球同步卫星定位系统进行双向定时的基本原理,采用北京和乌鲁木齐两站的试验数据进行了计算分析,发现双向定时结果明显存在周期性变化,并且两地结果随地方时的变化趋势基本一致。谱分析表明:两站的主要周期谱基本一致,都比较明显地存在近周日和近半日变化。这种周期性变化可能主要由电离层延迟随地方时的变化引起。     

中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

NAOC 1m反射望远镜CCD相机的性能研究

研究了国家天文台兴隆观测基地1m反射望远镜新安装的VersArray1340×1300BCCD照相机的性能。它有几乎没有图案的良好本底（bias），极低的读出噪声和暗流。用平场序列露光来检测其线性时，能得到线性良好的转移曲线（transfercurve）。但是，不论在平场露光（面光源）还是在恒星（点光源）的观测中，当像元值约高于55000adu时（增益3．7e^-／adu），都会产生溢出。此时CCD并未满井。因此，使用它做点扩散函数分析研究时，要避免使用太亮的星像。不过，由于电荷守恒原理，对产生溢出的孤立亮星像，仍然可以做孔径测光。此外，该相机的快门函数也已测定。     

基于POM模式与blending同化法建立中国近海潮汐模型

利用POM海洋数值模式建立了中国近海（2°N-41°N，99°E～132°E）分辨率为5′×5′的潮汐模型，模式采用blending同化法同化了由10年TOPEX／Poseidon测高数据反演的潮汐参数与沿岸52个验潮站观测。精度分析表明建立的潮汐模型的8分潮RSS为12．5cm。     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.